Political and Military Developments in Libya

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asked Apr 18 in 3D Segmentation by ashrf (1,300 points)

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In the past few months, a joint political committee comprising various parties has successfully drafted binding laws for the upcoming elections in Libya. However, the proponents of these draft laws have yet to secure the required formal signatures from President of the House of Representatives, Aqila Saleh, and the Chairman of the High Council of State, indicating dissatisfaction with the proposed legislation.

Additionally, the Supreme Council of State has elected a new president, Mohamed Takala, to succeed the current incumbent, Khaled al-Mishri. Al-Mishri exhibited flexibility in seeking a political solution to the country's crisis before the end of his term. 

Recent clashes in Tripoli between armed militias allied with the Government of National Unity led by Abdul Hamid al-Dabaiba and the Presidential Council have underscored the escalating competition between militias, the absence of unified leadership, and the widespread proliferation of weapons, bringing the country to the brink of a new armed conflict.

The clashes involved the 444th Brigade, loyal to the Government of National Unity, and the Special Deterrence Force, aligned with the Presidential Council—two influential military factions in Tripoli. The conflict erupted after the special forces captured the commander of the 444th Brigade, resulting in casualties and injuries before intervention by the head of the Government of National Unity temporarily defused the crisis.

A research paper by the Egyptian Center for Thought and Strategic Studies indicates that the Government of National Unity is struggling to control armed militias in the west, raising doubts about Prime Minister al-Dabaiba's ability to establish lasting stability. The possibility of prolonged military conflict among militias vying for influence and interests is also looming.

Two weeks prior to the clashes, there was a sudden change in the leadership of the Supreme Council of State in Tripoli, with Mohamed Takala replacing Khaled al-Mishri. Takala, reportedly aligned with al-Dabaiba, is perceived as more hardline and rejects the consensus committee's electoral laws.

However, Libyan House of Representatives member Hassan al-Zarqa argues against Takala annulling decisions made by the Supreme Council of State under al-Mishri's leadership, asserting that these decisions were adopted through a plenary session vote.

On the other hand, Libyan political scientist Mohamed Mahfouz anticipates Takala aligning with a faction opposing the roadmap and electoral laws, which could lead to the Council's rejection of these measures and a setback in Libya's political transition.

The Egyptian Center for Thought and Strategic Studies suggests that political differences, lack of trust among institutions, growing militia influence, and weapon proliferation outside state control could hinder Libya's political process and election prospects in the near future.

Currently, two rival governments are vying for power in Libya: one based in Tripoli, led by Abd al-Hamid al-Dabiba, and the other controlling the east, led by Osama Hammad and supported by Khalifa Haftar.

https://www.wikizero.com/ar/%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA_%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AE%D9%85%D8%B3_2015

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